Durante mucho tiempo no había principios uniformes para la Atribución de nombres a los antibióticos https://antibioticos-wiki.es . Más a menudo se les llama por el nombre genérico o especie del producto, con menos frecuencia-de acuerdo con la estructura química. Algunos antibióticos se nombran de acuerdo con el lugar donde se asignó el producto.
Microsoft word - avance_on_early_stage_myths.doc
“Early stage projects always have a
valuation. Possible reasons for the earlier
negative NPV”
statement, that all early-stage projects
when discussing with people from pharmaceutical companies: “Early-stage
• Over-conservative sales assumptions.
never get to a positive value. Decisions are based on other criteria such as
Let’s have a closer look at this: biotech
positive or a negative value shows up. If
you regularly value early-stage projects
you should, first of all, apply always the
statement. Of course, one could say that
only fools invest at that stage and that
results to industry values. You will never
can easily find some strong evidence for
predict the value of your project once it
the biotech industry. The pharmaceutical
from licensing deals, acquisition prices,
industry is interestingly highly profitable.
“It is impossible to predict sales so far in the future. Why should we bother?”
20% and 30%. And since each and every commercialised
R&D organisation are frustrated because
early stage project, even such early-stage
projects should have a positive value. Of
prioritisation reasons. On the other hand
have increased as well. And finally, early-
and the actual realised sales. One of the
most prominent examples is probably Pfizers Exubera (inhaled insulin), which
patients’ interest, although sales have
been predicted in the multi-billion dollar
Avance, Basel, GmbH, Bäumleingasse 2, CH – 4051 Basel
Jack you can actually consistently (i.e. on
Table 1: Forecasted and actual sales1.
average) make money. However, it takes quite some skills; you need to count the
cards that have been dealt, draw cards and bet accordingly. The system is
actually that challenging that only very
few persons manage to do it right. Tellingly,
mathematicians, some from the MIT (it has also been the topic of the movie
“21”). Now, when you play according to
to the cards on the table and the previously dealt cards. However, even if
Well, it is true that forecasted sales are
less. And it is equally true that you can
Tracleer. In the late 90ies Roche decided
with mathematics (it’s even challenging
called Actelion. They developed the drug
bn in sales. Clearly, Roche did not expect
but on average he is worse off and probably even starts loosing. You can
But the unreliability of the forecasts is
margin) if you play strictly according to
an anology from an equally uncertain world, the casino. When playing Black
1 Source: Arthur G. Cook, „Forecasting in the
Avance, Basel, GmbH, Bäumleingasse 2, CH – 4051 Basel
gives you wrong advise, just like in Black
uncomfortable decisions that lead to the
Jack. But on average – and this is the
actual meaning of “consistently” – you
are not very interesting. We never mention that they were right all along
Conclusion
development of Lipitor, Avastin, Diovan, and all the other successful drugs. But
it went wrong. Don’t be fooled by this
money, that is most often not your own. Valuation might sometimes be wrong,
“winning” and “consistently winning”.
only, investors are interested in a positive return on their whole portfolio.
Finally, if people say that some projects
They can afford the one or other failure
investment compensates it. It’s like in
the casino; you don’t have to win every
scenario. If you cannot think of any then
only plays one hand – the fate of their
motto holds: If you cannot value it, you
Knowing that valuation sometimes can give wrong recommendations they rather trust their gut-feeling, to the disadvantage of the whole industry, whose return is hampered that way. For this reason biotech companies have trouble
Avance, Basel, GmbH, Bäumleingasse 2, CH – 4051 Basel
http://www.per-olof.dk | mailto:mail@per-olof.dk | Blog: http://perolofdk.wordpress.com/ Allerød Bibliotek stillede i marts måned 2006 mig nogle spørgsmål i anledning af deres læselystkampagne. Jeg svarede og svaret blev bragt på deres hjemmeside og i Allerød Nyt. Men i avisen skete der det, at en layout-fejl fik et billede til at glide ind over teksten, så kun halvdelen kunne læs
Helmut Erich SEGNER Born 10th September 1954 in Tauberbischofsheim, GermanyNationality: GermanProfessional address:Centre for Fish and WildlifeUniversity BernPostbox 8466CH-3001 BernTel. +41-31 631 2441/2465, Fax +41-31 631 2611, Email: helmut.segner@itpa.unibe.ch ACADEMIC AND PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS Habilitation in Zoology, University Karlsruhe: “Morphology, biochemistryand environme