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Research Notes – Buy IRB Infra, Tata Motors, Dr.Reddy’s, reduce GSPL (September 12, 2012)
Maintain ‘buy’ on IRB Infrastructure – TP Rs.182
The Service Tax (ST) department has demanded Rs.60.46 crore as ST on tolls collected in three of its
It appears that IRB has a strong case in its defence. In the worst case, the impact of this order could
be Rs.140 crore (a loss of Rs.4 per share) plus interest. However, this would most likely to be passed on to the NHAI.
ST claims of this sort have not been heard against other road developers and checks with NHAI
suggest that IRB has a strong position in this dispute. The enforcement of such a levy could have an adverse impact on the entire sector and ultimately increase the cost of infrastructure development in India.
The company is confident that it would be able to invoke the ‘change in law/ interpretation of law
clause in the agreement that allows such claims to be passed through the awarder.
Target price of Rs.182 is maintained on the stock. It is currently traded in Rs.123 range.
Maintain ‘buy’ on Tata Motors – TP Rs.310
Despite macro concerns, growth rate of luxury car sales in China, US and globally remained resilient in
August 2012. This augurs well for Tata Motors JLR, which would report its August 2012 sales shortly. JLR sales are expected to report growth of 25% yoy in August.
Initial reviews of the newly launched Range Rover have been encouraging. Despite premium pricing,
its contribution to overall JLR volume has been 10%. This is expected to sustain, implying sales growth of 20% for the 2013 model.
JLR should also benefit from the launch of the Jaguar XF Sportbrake and Jaguar F-type over the next
Maintain buy with a target price of Rs.310 over one year. Resilient industry growth trends should help
maintain margins for JLR, which were previously seen at risk.
Maintain ‘buy’ on Dr. Reddy’s Lab – TP Rs.1803
Buy rating on Dr. Reddy’s Lab is maintained with a target price of Rs.1803.
The company has launched all strengths of generic Toprol XL (Metoprolol XL) in the US. Toprol XL is
an antihypertensive product with a market size of USD1.1 billion. The company received approval for generic Toprol XL from the USFDA last month.
Toprol XL is a limited-competition product with four generic competitors in the market currently and two
more generic players are expected to enter in due course.
Even if Dr. Reddy’s achieves 5% market share in the first year of launch, the opportunity translates into
sales of USD50m with relatively high margins. EPS impact works out to Rs.3/share.
The Toprol XL approval gives further confidence of a revival in US sales over the next three quarters
after a disappointing performance in 1Q FY13. Dr. Reddy’s is looking at sales of close to USD800m from the US in FY13 with potential upside from 1-2 large-sized products which are yet to be disclosed. It seems that these product approvals and their subsequent launch will be the key driver for the company’s stock performance from here on.
Delays in key product approvals for the US and pricing pressure in Russia pose risks to the target
Maintain ‘reduce’ on GSPL – TP Rs.68
‘Reduce’ rating has been maintained on Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) with a target price of Rs.68
over one year. The stock is currently traded in the range of Rs.75.
Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) announced tariff pertaining to GSPL’s Gujarat
High Pressure network. The average tariff has been cut 13% to Rs.840/tcm.
Await further clarity/management feedback before reviewing estimates.
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