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Engineering the politics of Europe’s energy transformation – what will it take? The Energiewende – is there a Nordic way? ‘Engineering the politics of Europe’s energy ‘A few humble thougths on Europe’s daunting Independent social science/international law research institute based in Oslo, Norway natural resources – international level • European energy and climate change policies • Management of Arctic natural resources • Russian and Chinese energy and environmental policies • Effectiveness of international environmental cooperation The Nordic model – relevance to energy and The role of Norway – frozen fossile or Input to political strategy for the future Nordic countries differ in significant ways Each offer unique contributions to Europe’s energy and Integration of electricity markets source of inspiration across countries and continents Trust-based political systems a good starting point Nordic ability to formulate and implement Heritage and current surplus status demands much of Nordic energy strategists – are we up to the • The world’s second largest gas exporter and seventh largest • Provides Germany, France, UK with 25-30% of their gas imports; second only to Russia in Germany • Major player in the emerging Arctic energy adventure, and • Key European player also in hydro power; half of Europe’s hydro reservoir capacity; Statkraft Europe’s largest renewable • Provides important «green battery» functions to Denmark, • The world’s (second?) largest sovereign wealth fund, • The world’s largest Oil for Development Programme report on resource politics & governance • «The nine habits of highly effective resources economies» (Canadian International Council, October • «Norway is a model for Canada, indeed for any country that wants to find out how the proceeds from winning the geological lottery can be used for the best, long • The ability to set goals and muster the whole society behind comprehensive strategy for how to make petroleum a blessing and not a curse for Norway Norway 2012 to 2030 to 2050: part of the • Continue long term gas sales to Europe, in support of Europe’s efforts to reduce coal consumption • Incentivise world leading low carbon performance across full range petroleum production cycle • Invest heavily in CCS, nationally but also in Europe and • Work to eliminate gas flaring and to minimise emissions from Arctic energy production (black carbon) • Already major clean electricity provider to Northern • Strategy to provide «green battery» functions to • Implement EU’s renewables directive; green sertificates • Exploit comparative edge in support of offshore wind • Mobilise capital through sovereign wealth fund? Europe key in present and even more so in • Not sufficiently appreciated in Norway today • Germany a leading renewable energy industry player • Impressive long term low carbon strategy • Energiewende sustains German low carbon ambitions • But major obstacles ahead – is coal making a return? EU’s pioneering role in integrating energy • EU continues to be driving force for low carbon future • ETS in rough weather today, but hugely important • Moved climate concerns from PR office to boardrooms Energy & climate outlook per October 2012 • Global emissions increasing , coal makes a «return» • New oil & gas bonanza – can anything stop/limit the exploitation of new fossil fuel provinces/sources? • Global negotations stalled, low expectations for Doha • Looming trade wars over renewable energy • CCS stumbles ahead, setbacks and limited progress • Financial crisis axes renewables support schemes • ETS in rough weather as carbon price sinks further; and • Voters/consumers get frustrated and confused Fossil fuel sources ready for harvesting are • already far beyond the goal of 2 percent degree warming Who can stop the fossil fuel supertanker? • Apple earned net income of $25,9 billion in 2011 • Apple’s property, plant and equipment worth 7,8 billion • Exxon earned net income of $41,1 billion in 2011 • Exxon’s property, plant and equipment worth $215 billion («the ancien regime will not abdicate without a fight) Sustainable crisis consciousness is needed – but Continue investing in credible science and Fairness and effectiveness favours targeting carbon consumption and not production (?) Acknowledge current crisis of confidence in Stay the course on market-friendly reforms Embrace China, resist protectionist pressures Progressing towards a low carbon energy path Get serious on coal to gas transition – reform electricity and ensure predictable policy frameworks for gas Accelerate CCS investments, but be frank and humble about «Lines of contention» – paradigmatic change of speed needed in Don’t panic, but no place for complacency over current ETS system crisis – time to rethink the carbon tax option? Support current renewable technologies in ways that do not lock them in and deter essential new developments Invest massively in new research and technology development – energy/communication technology, improved battery functions, electrification of transport, new electricity generation technology It’s about people, consumers, voters – prioritise vision, honesty, transparency, consultation Be honest about uncertainties, costs and trade- offs – there is no free low carbon lunch Be tough and brave on the NIMBY phenomenon – transmission lines are beautiful and sexy !!!! Invest in global climate diplomacy /confidence – find new ways of engaging Chinae and the other

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