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## Gepl.narod.ru

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*Transactions (Doklady) of the Russian Academy of Sciences/Earth Science Sections, Vol. 348, No. 4, 1996, pp. 626–629.*

Translated from Doklady Akademii Nauk, Vol. 348, No. 1, 1996, pp. 111–114.

Original Russian Text Copyright 1996 by Klimenko, Klimanov, Fedorov.

English Translation Copyright 1996 by åÄàä ç‡ÛÍ‡ /Interperiodica Publishing (Russia).
**GEOPHYSICS**
**The History of the Mean Temperature of the Northern **
**Hemisphere over the Last 11000 Years**
**V. V. Klimenko*, V. A. Klimanov**, and M. V. Fedorov***
Presented by Academician G.S. Golitsyn January 24, 1995
The magnitude and the sign of future climate
all large-scale (about one degree) climate variations in
changes are determined by a complex superposition of
Late Glaciation–Holocene are manifested in all parts of
anthropogenic and natural factors. There are a number
the globe with a remarkable synchronism but different
of reasons to believe that over the last centuries the cli-
amplitude. Based on this conclusion and on the abun-
mate has been cooling and will continue to do so in the
dant temperature variation data on vast land regions, we
future [1–4]. This can, to a some extend, reduce the rel-
attempted to reconstruct global climate variations over
ative temperature rise caused by anthropogenic activity.

Hence, the quantitative study of regularities of the nat-ural evolution of climate has a great significance.

The principal obstacles in obtaining the time series
Attempts to estimate the parameters of natural climate
of mean global temperature from palynological data are
variations were repeatedly made in the past [5, 6].

the following: initial series for specific palinological
However, the lack of detailed information on the mean
sections differ in duration as well as in time step; the
annual global and hemispheric temperatures for a suffi-
sampling (section) sites are chaotically spaced.

ciently long timespan was, up to the present, a seriousobstacle that prevented one from making generaliza-
To overcome the first obstacle, we reduced all series
tions. In this work we attempt to reconstruct the tem-
to a standard time scale (at 25-year intervals) and a sin-
perature series for the Northern Hemisphere during the
gle period (11 ka B.P.—1950). When performing this
Late Glaciation-Holocene from paleoclimatic data.

procedure, we took into account results of the compar-
Results of modern instrumental observations were also
ison of temperature series obtained at different sec-
tions, which demonstrate substantial compatibility
For the paleoclimatic reconstruction of Late Glacia-
despite the large distances between them. The fact that
tion and Holocene, we used the informational-statisti-
the studied series contain information on rather long-
cal method [7] based on the statistic relation between
term and large-scale temperature variations only is, in
the contemporary spore and pollen spectra and climatic
our opinion, the reason why these series demonstrate
conditions (mean temperatures for July and January,
consistent temperature changes. But the scale of these
mean annual temperatures, and total annual precipita-
variations is different for different sections. As a rule,
tion). The accuracy of determinations of mean values isas follows: July and mean annual temperatures,
their amplitude increases with an increase in the geo-
±0.6°C; January temperature, ±1°C; and total annual graphical latitude of the section; this is in good agree-precipitation ±25 mm.

ment with conclusions obtained from the instrumentalclimate observations in [9]. Hence, we assume that
More than 60 paleoclimatic curves with different
degrees of detail were drawn out by this method for
each of the reconstructed temperature series

*T *' can be
plane regions of northern Eurasia. Figure 1 illustrates
the reconstructed mean July temperatures for someregions located in temperate and subpolar latitudes and

*T *' =

*T *(

*t*) + ε (

*t*),
spaced many thousands of km apart. The rather goodcorrelation between all these curves is an additional
where

*Ti*(

*t*) is the mean annual air temperature over the
argument in favor of the recent concept [2, 8, etc.] that
section

*i* at instant of time

*t* and ε

*i*(

*t*) are the accuracy ofmeasurements. Note that for any two sections

*i*,

*j*, func-tions

*T*
**Institute of Nuclear Safety Problems, Russian Academy *
*i*(

*t*) and

*Tj*(

*t*) are connected by a linear relation.

*of Sciences, B. Tul’skaya ul. 52, Moscow, 113191 Russia*
In order to determine the shape of the signal

*T*(

*t*) asexactly as possible, we selected the nine most detailed

***Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, *
*Staromonentnyi per.29, Moscow, 109017 Russia*
series, the duration of which exceeds the chosen time

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
THE HISTORY OF THE MEAN TEMPERATURE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

**Fig. 1. **Paleoclimatic curves (the deviations of the mean June temperatures from the present–day ones (in °C) for different regions

of northern Eurasia: (

*1*) Karelia, (

*2*) central Western Siberia, (

*3*) central Yakutia, (

*4*) central Byelorussia, (

*5*) Bashkiria, (

*6*) Primorsk

region.

interval, and constructed the averaged temperature
bal climate is followed by a very nonuniform spatial
distribution of climatic parameters, the mean tempera-tures for rather large regions can be calculated with rea-
sonable accuracy by means of a linear transformation
of the mean global temperature. In other words, the fol-
If we assume, additionally, that Coν(ε , ε
signal to noise ratio for this series must be substantiallygreater than that for the initial ones. In a first approxi-
r(

*t*),

*T*gl(

*t*), and (

*t*) are the mean regional tem-
mation, we can neglect the second term in (2) and con-
perature in the year

*t*, mean global temperature in the
sider that the averaged series does not involve a noise.

year

*t*, and random noise, respectively. It is evident thatthe greater the size of a region, the more precise will be
We estimated coefficients of the linear regression of
the model (3). Therefore, the coefficients of correlation
each initial series on averaged series (2). The closing of
between the mean global temperatures and tempera-
gaps and the extrapolation of initial series was carried
tures for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
out by substitutions of corresponding points of aver-
calculated from the data of Jones

*et al.* [11] are equal to
aged series (2) transformed with consideration taken
0.95. But model (3) may be of use for considerably
smaller regions, as was demonstrated in [9] for the 10°
In order to overcome the second obstacle, the results
latitude by 360° longitude zone of the Northern Hemi-
of temperature measurements at chaotic sampling
sphere (data on instrumental observation of climate).

(section) sites were interpolated into zones of a regular
In our work, the β coefficient was obtained by aver-
5° latitude by 10° longitude grid. We chose the interpo-
aging (with weights proportional to area) correspond-
lation technique of Jones

*et al.* [10] for compiling the
ing coefficients for a 10° latitude by 40° longitude
global grid archives of air temperatures. In accordance
region (in our works, for regions 10° lat. by 40° long. in
with this technique, the temperature in a grid zone is
size) of the former USSR. In this case, the value of β is
determined by the sum of temperatures measured at
equal to 1.47. Therefore, we used the following formula
nearest points with weights that are inversely propor-
for calculating the global average temperature:
tional to their distance from the zone. The grid dataobtained in this way were integrated for the territory of
the former USSR. In our opinion, the series obtained
constitute important information on the change in theglobal climate and can be used, in particular, for recon-
where β = 1.47, and the constant α was chosen in such
structing the time series of the global mean temperature
a way that the mean value of the series obtained over
of surface air. Actually, although the change in the glo-
the 1851–1950 period coincided with the mean hemi-
TRANSACTIONS (DOKLADY) OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES/EARTH SCIENCE SECTIONS Vol. 348 No. 4 1996
Holocene warming differed from present-day ones by
only few decigrades. This, however, seems natural if we
take into account the preservation of much of the conti-
nental ice and cold North Atlantic in this period.

The temperature curve obtained is valuable initial
material for constructing a long-range prediction of thebehavior of natural climate. In doing so, our first objec-
tive was to determine the temperature effects of longperiod (about 104–105 years) cycles of the natural cli-
mate, which, apparently, are related to alterations of the
parameters of Earth’s heliocentric orbit.
In order to determine the temporal trend of the cli-
mate change, we used the standard procedure for timeseries analysis [15]. The study of the history of several
interglaciations let us to choose a quadratic function forestimating the temperature change trend. The coeffi-
cient of correlation between the relation

**Fig. 2. **Change of mean temperature in the Northern Hemi-

sphere (expressed as anomalies relative to 1951–1980) over
(

*t*) =

*At *+

*Bt *+

*C*,
and experimental data reaches 0.93;

*Y*(

*t*) is the trend
estimate of a temperature change;

*t* is time;

*A*,

*B*, and

*C*
spheric temperature anomaly over the same period
(−0.25°C) derived from instrumental observation [11]
Our results show that the rate of mean global tem-
(previously, Jones’s series was recalculated relative to data
perature drop caused by orbital factors will be of the
for 1951–1980). Thus, the obtained

*T*
order of (3–6) ⋅ 10–4 °C per year during, at least, the
reconstruction of anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) in the
next few thousand of years. This value is an order of
mean annual temperature of the surface air in the
magnitude less than the rate of the temperature rise reg-
istered by instrumental observations during the lastcentury and assumed for the 21th century. Neverthe-
This reconstructed series depicts a complex pattern
less, the trend, which is well pronounced and stable in
of alternating cooling and warming periods during Late
amplitude and sign, suggests that the significant tem-
Glaciation–Holocene. We cannot agree with the state-
perature effect resulting from orbital variations should
ment [12] about a remarkable climatic stability over
be taken into consideration for correct forecast and the
the last 10 ka, which is based on recent results from the
long-range (over several centuries) climatic reconstruc-
investigation of the Greenland ice core at the Summit
tion. The aforesaid statement refers equally to the cal-
station. The onset of temperature extremums are in
culation of anthropogenic warming, the significance of
good agreement with the existing notions based on iso-
which will be progressively diminished due to the
lated local reconstructions. One should not consider
this fact surprising because of the suggestion men-tioned above about the global character of large-scaleclimate variations. As for temperature variation ampli-
tudes, the pattern presented in Fig. 2 is, in contrast,
This work was supported in part by the Mining
inconsistent with conventional notions [13]. Perhaps
Industrial Corporation (Russia) and U. S. Department
only the big Atlantic optimum (6–5 ka B.P.) retains its
of Energy, project no.1753-300224. V.V. Klimanov
significance as the warmest and, simultaneously, the
acknowledges the Alexander von Humboldt Founda-
most continuous Holocene period. Mean temperatures
tion (Germany) for invariable support and attention.

and the peak values exceeded present-day values by0.82°C and 1.4°C. Our estimate of the mean tempera-ture is in good agreement with calculations (0.6–0.7°C)
in [14] conducted on the basis of paleoclimtic recon-
1. Gerasimov, I.P.,

*Meteorol. Gidrol*., 1979, no. 7, pp. 37–53.

struction for a nontropical zone of the Northern Hemi-
2. Klimanov, V.A., in

*Paleoklimaty pozdnelednikov’ya i*
*golotsena* (Paleoclimates of Late Glaciation and
Our estimate is perhaps more valid because it is
Holocene), Moscow: Nauka, 1989, pp. 29–33.

based on a distinct pattern of latitudinal temperature
3. Klimenko, V.V., Klimenko, A.V., Snytin, S.Yu., and
distribution anomalies registered by reliable instrumen-
Fedorov, M.V.,

*Teploenergetika*, 1994, no.1, pp. 5–11.

tal observations over almost 150 years. The subboreal
4. Berger, A.,

*Vistas Astron.*, 1980, vol. 24, pp. 103–122.

(4.2–3.3 ka B.P.) maximum was the second highest
5. Johnsen, S.J., Dansgaard, W., Clausen, H.B., and Lang-
temperature value; temperatures during the Early
way, C.C.,

*Nature*,1970, vol. 227, no. 5257, pp. 482–483.

TRANSACTIONS (DOKLADY) OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES/EARTH SCIENCE SECTIONS Vol. 348 No. 4 1996
THE HISTORY OF THE MEAN TEMPERATURE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
6. Lamb, H.H.,

*Climate, History, and the Modern World*,
11.

*Trends 91: A Compendium of Data on Global Change*,
Eds. Boden, T.A., Sepanski, R.J., and Stoss, F.W., OakRidge: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Cen-
7. Klimanov, V.A.,

*Vestn. Mosk. Univ*.,

*Ser. 5. Geogr*., 1976,
12. Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S.J., Clausen, H.B.

*et al.*,
8. Borzenkova, I.I.,I

*zmenenie klimata v Kainozoe* (Climate

*Nature*, 1993, vol. 364, no. 6434, pp. 218–220.

Change in Cenozoic), St. Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat,
13.

*Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment*, Cam-
bridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990.

9. Vinnikov, K.Ya.,

* Chuvstvitel’nost’ klimata *(Climate
14. Velichko, A.A. and Klimanov, V.A.,

*Izv. Akad. Nauk*
Sensitivity), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1986.

*SSSR*,

*Ser. Geogr*.,1990, no. 5, pp. 38–52.

10. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B., Bradley, R.S.

*et al*.

*Climate and*
15. Bendat, J.S. and Piersol, A.G.,

*Random Data: Analysis*
*Applied Meteorology*, 1986, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 161–179.

*and Measurement Procedures*, New York: Wiley, 1986.

TRANSACTIONS (DOKLADY) OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES/EARTH SCIENCE SECTIONS Vol. 348 No. 4 1996

Source: http://www.gepl.narod.ru/Articles/Klim96.pdf

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