Things are seldom what they seem. Skim milk masquerades as
used to shape policy, even if it was junk. And as
medical organizations grew more sophisticated about
press releases and public relations, the obstetricpowers-that-be also realized that even if the study
A funny thing happened on the way to practicing
did not produce the results they had hoped, it didn’t
evidence-based obstetric care. Obstetricians hijacked
matter. If it was accompanied by an editorial, the
some of the research. In the late 1970s and 1980s
commenter could make any claims he or she liked
advocates for change could say either that the
for the study, and almost no one—few obstetricians
evidence did not exist to support typical obstetric
and certainly no one in the media—would notice the
management or that it existed and discredited it.
Enough people made this point that governmental
This exercise pulled the rug out from under birth
agencies, third-party payers, and consumers began
activists. It was hard enough trying to explain to an
pressuring obstetricians to mend their ways. To cite
unsophisticated public and clinicians that expert
one example, the Healthy People goals set in 1990
opinion was insufficient without science to back it up.
mandated a reduction in the cesarean delivery rate to
Convincing them that research published in respected
15 percent by 2000 (1). (It is worth noting that the
medical journals might be fatally flawed or that claims
National Institutes of Health convened a consensus
for it were not justified is well-nigh impossible. Once
conference in 1980to strategize on how to lower a
misinformation is widely disseminated, a well-crafted
cesarean rate that had reached the alarming heights of
rebuttal has little effect. The damage is done, and the
fact that the falsehood aligns with the cultural zeitgeist,
Mainstream obstetricians reacted, not by bringing
whereas the correction does not, ensures that it cannot
their practices into line with what the research
showed to be safe and effective care, but by fightingchange. In a variation of the old saw ‘‘If it looks like
a duck and sounds like a duck and walks like a duck,it’s a duck,’’ they discovered that if a study read like
1. Hannah et al’s 1992 multicenter randomized
a well-done study—it was laid out as such, used the
controlled trial concluded only that induction of
right terminology and concepts, and was published
labor at 41 weeks’ gestation decreased the cesarean
in a peer-reviewed journal—it would be accepted
rate from 25 to 21 percent compared with expectant
into the canon of evidence-based care and could be
management (3). This trial was actually one ofelective induction, since pregnancy was not consid-ered postterm at that time until 42 weeks. Itsconclusion, however, contradicted the finding of
Henci Goer is the author of The Thinking Woman’s Guide to a
other studies of elective induction, all of which
Better Birth, Obstetric Myths Versus Research Realities, and many
reported substantial increases in the cesarean rate in
articles on birth issues for consumers and professionals. She is a doula
nulliparous women (4). Since two-thirds of Hannah
and a retired Lamaze-certified childbirth educator.
et al’s population had no prior births, why the
Address correspondence to Henci Goer, 970 Buckeye Court, Sunny-
difference? Answer: One-third of the expectant man-
vale, CA94086 or Goersitemail@HenciGoer.com.
agement group was induced, and one-third of the
induction group began labor spontaneously, which
would flatten out the differences between groups.
long opposed VBAC, however, and starting in 1996,
A follow-up analysis revealed that, in fact, 42 percent
they began producing studies purporting to support,
of induced nulliparas had cesareans compared with
or which editorials claim support, elective cesarean.
25 percent of nulliparas laboring spontaneously (5).
The Hannah et al trial found no differences inperinatal morbidity or mortality.
1. McMahon et al’s study concluded that, ‘‘Major
complications were nearly twice as likely among
Result: This trial fueled a headlong rush to induce
women undergoing a trial of labor’’ (15, p 689).
labor routinely at 41 weeks’ gestation or even earlier
However, the authors coded wound infections and
on the grounds of improved perinatal outcomes. This
hemorrhage requiring transfusion as ‘‘minor compli-
cations’’ (16). These would normally be considered
because 41 weeks is the median length of pregnancy
major complications, and coding them as such would
in healthy nulliparas, who are at high risk for
have wiped out the difference. Even so, ‘‘nearly
twice’’ the major complication rate amounted to alittle less than 1 percent in the elective cesarean
2. Misoprostol (Cytotec) to induce labor: After
group, a little more than 1 percent in the VBAC
the drug’s manufacturer, Searle, wrote a letter to all
obstetricians repudiating the off-label use of Cytotec
2. Mozurkewich and Hutton conducted a meta-
and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
analysis and concluded that a trial of labor ‘‘may’’
banned its use, a review of the literature argued
result in an increase in fetal and neonatal mortality
that misoprostol was safe (at least in women with
compared with elective repeat cesarean, despite find-
unscarred uteruses) and effective, and that no other
ing no statistically significant difference (12).
drug could substitute (7). An accompanying editorial
They reached this conclusion despite stacking the
chastised the FDA for banning it (8). Contradicting
deck against trial of labor by including deaths
its own conclusion, the review acknowledged that
unrelated to birth route. The combined fetal and
misoprostol resulted in more cases of uterine hyper-
neonatal mortality rates in 11 studies totaled 136 per
stimulation and accompanying fetal distress and that
23,486 (or 6 ⁄ 1000) for trial of labor versus 56 per
it produced similar cesarean rates compared with
16,239 (or 3 ⁄ 1000) for elective repeat cesarean for an
oxytocin or prostaglandin E2 inductions. The review
absolute difference of 3 per 1000. All but 8 deaths in
also omits mention of case reports of uterine rupture
the former group and 3 deaths in the latter group
came from 3 studies. A closer examination of those 3studies reveals that when the numbers are corrected
Result: The FDA rescinded the ban, not on the
by subtracting deaths unrelated to birth route, the
grounds of misoprostol’s efficacy and safety, but
numbers fall to 43 in the trial of labor group and 13
because it was in such common use (9). The drug’s
in the elective group for a corrected mortality rate of
package insert continues to state a long list of serious
2 per 1000 versus 1 per 1000 and an absolute
and life-threatening complications attributed to it
(10). In fact, misoprostol’s only virtues are its
3. Lydon-Rochelle et al’s study was accompanied
extremely low cost—pennies per dose—and its ten-
by an editorial, in which Greene asserted that the
dency to throw women into short, violent labors,
investigators had proved that elective cesarean sec-
which allows obstetricians to practice ‘‘daylight
tion was safer for babies than VBAC (17). The study
obstetrics,’’ a clear case of sacrificing the best
itself only showed the dangers of induction with
interests of women and babies to economics and
prostaglandin E2 (18). The uterine rupture rate was
1.6 per 1000 with elective repeat cesarean, 5.2 per1000 with spontaneous labor onset—only slightly
VBAC versus Elective Repeat Cesarean Studies
more than with planned cesarean and the same asthat found in other large studies, 7.7 per 1000 with
Dozens of studies, comprising tens of thousands of
oxytocin induction, but a whopping 24.5 per 1000
women, and meta-analyses of those studies have
with prostaglandin E2. The study did not report
conclusively demonstrated that VBAC is less hazard-
comparative neonatal mortality rates, but they can be
ous for the mother and equally safe for the baby
calculated from the reported 5.5 percent death rate
(11–14). Because 70percent or more of women can
after uterine rupture: 1 per 10,000 with elective repeat
give birth vaginally, a policy of routine VBAC spares
cesarean, 3 per 10,000 with spontaneous labor, 4 per
women and babies exposure to the risks of cesarean
10,000 with oxytocin induction, but 13 per 10,000
section in subsequent pregnancies. Obstetricians have
with prostaglandin E2. The accuracy of the data must
also be questioned, since 311 VBAC women had
birth with a trained attendant, Pang et al claimed
breech presentations or placenta previa, conditions
that Washington state birth certificate data showed
that would surely disqualify them from VBAC (19).
that such births increased the risk of neonatal death
4. Smith et al recommended elective cesarean at 39
and other adverse outcomes (27). The study’s many
weeks on the basis of finding an 11-fold increase in
flaws included failure to exclude unplanned home
perinatal mortality with trial of labor (20). But the
births or planned home births with no qualified
study defined any vaginal birth or emergency cesarean
attendant; failure to exclude preterm births; failure to
after 37 weeks’ gestation as a trial of labor. Thus, any
determine whether the choice to birth at home was at
woman who had a uterine rupture or placental
fault in neonatal deaths; failure to establish truly
abruption after 37 weeks and had an emergency
comparable populations; and failure to report on
cesarean would be classified as a trial of labor. The
adverse outcomes strongly associated with hospital
perinatal mortality in such cases would likely be high.
birth in low-risk women, such as greatly increased
Investigators in a large Swiss study reported that the
cesarean and vaginal instrumental delivery rates
odds of uterine rupture in pregnancy in women with a
uterine scar were 2 per 1000, the odds of placental
Result: This study will almost certainly be used
abruption 3 per 1000 (13). Although not every baby
to justify the ongoing persecution of home birth
would die, and some cases would occur earlier than 37
midwives and to put pressure on those physicians
weeks, still, this means that, several, if not many, of
the 20infant deaths in Smith et al’s so-called ‘‘trial oflabor group’’ were not trials of labor. In any case, theabsolute difference in mortality between planned
cesarean and planned vaginal birth was 1 per 1000,and did not differ significantly from the mortality rate
Problems even infest the Cochrane systematic reviews,
in primiparous births. To put these mortality rates in
long the gold standard of evidence-based care. They
perspective, the chance of losing the pregnancy as a
have crept in as the Cochrane evolved from a small
result of amniocentesis is 1 in 200 to 1 in 400 (21). Yet
band of upstart, radical physicians and midwives
no one is suggesting abandoning amniocentesis.
challenging established practice into a mainstream
The study by McMahon et al is the sole one cited in
institution itself. A disturbing number of reviews
support of the American College of Obstetricians and
conform to the Cochrane guidelines but reach erro-
Gynecologists’ (ACOG’s) about face on VBAC. These
neous conclusions and misrepresent the true state of
latest guidelines emphasize the risks of VBAC, say
affairs. This is especially problematic because these
nothing about the risks of repeat cesarean, and set
reviews have the power to effect sweeping changes in
standards of care for VBAC labors that many com-
munity hospitals cannot meet—standards of care thatthe guidelines themselves acknowledge are not backed
1. The review Interventions for Preventing or
by research (22). That ACOG singles out VBAC
Improving the Outcome of Delivery at or Beyond Term
labors, even though emergencies occur in non-VBAC
concludes that routine induction of labor at 41 weeks
labors at higher rates, suggests that the intent is to
will reduce the perinatal mortality rate without
eradicate VBAC, not protect the well-being of mothers
increasing the cesarean rate (30). Among the 19
studies, 9 per 3800 babies died perinatally in theexpectant management group versus 1 per 4125 babies
Result: Between the new ACOG guidelines and these
in the routine induction group (2.3/1000 vs 0.2/1000).
studies, the VBAC rate has plunged from a high of 28
But 2 of the 9 deaths in the await-labor group
percent in 1996 to a low of 16.4 percent in 2001 (24).
occurred before 41 weeks’ gestation. A policy of
Thousands of women have been refused VBACs,
routine induction at 41 weeks would not have
including women who have already had one or more
prevented them. Another 2 deaths occurred in a
(25), a policy that not only contravenes an ACOG
1969 study of only 110women. This study and those
Committee Opinion guaranteeing women the right to
deaths can be eliminated on the grounds that the
refuse any treatment, test, or procedure, but the right
obstetrics of that era and the perinatal death rates
of any patient to decline surgery (26).
simply do not apply to modern-day care. That leaves 5perinatal deaths in 3750women versus 1 in 40
women, or 1.3 per 1000 in the expectant managementgroup versus 0.2 per 1000 in the routine induction
Contradicting the consistent findings of a large body
group, or a difference of 1 per 1000 between groups. A
of research affirming the safety of planned home
difference this small seems likely to be due to chance.
The reviewer also fails to find a difference in
researchers, peer reviewers, and editorialists assur-
cesarean rates even among nulliparous women, but
edly play a role. Mary Hannah, principal author of
this is almost certainly because the reviewer failed to
large multicenter randomized controlled trials of
address crossover. Typically, 20percent or more of
postdates pregnancy, prelabor rupture of mem-
participants assigned to induction began labor spon-
branes, and vaginal breech delivery, recently con-
taneously and vice versa. In the Hannah et al trial,
vened and chaired a conference entitled ‘‘Choosing
one-third in each group received the other treatment,
Delivery by Caesarean: Has Its Time Come?’’ (34)
which is especially problematic because the size of
Michael Greene, assistant editor of the New England
this trial in relation to the other trials makes it
Journal of Medicine, who wrote the editorial damning
the ‘‘500 lb gorilla’’ in the weighted meta-analysis (3).
VBAC that accompanied Lydon-Rochelle et al’s
Such a degree of crossover will greatly flatten out
study, said of elective primary cesareans, ‘‘The
differences in outcomes between groups.
in-laws get to use supersaver fares’’ (35). James
2. Crossover also afflicts the Cochrane reviews of
Scott, who shaped ACOG’s current guidelines and is
epidurals, early amniotomy, and episiotomy. To
editor of Obstetrics and Gynecology, which published
illustrate, the Cochrane review of episiotomy finds
Pang et al’s home birth study, is on record opposing
no statistical difference in severe posterior or vaginal
trauma with routine versus selective use of episio-
That obstetricians should be prejudiced in favor of
tomy, even with midline episiotomy (31). Every study
intervention in general and surgery in particular is
that has ever been done has concluded that midline
scarcely surprising for physicians who are, after all,
episiotomy predisposes to anal tears, but in the sole
surgeons and specialists in the pathology of women’s
randomized controlled trial of midline episiotomy, 57
reproductive organs. Obstetric management rests on
percent of primiparas and 31 percent of multiparas
the erroneous premise that pregnancy and childbirth
had episiotomies in the ‘‘restrict episiotomy’’ group
are events fraught with peril, and require the services
(32). In point of fact, 52 of 53 anal tears were
of just such specialists to avert the disasters that
would otherwise frequently ensue. It follows that
3. The review Vaginal Misoprostol for Cervical
these who believe this will tend to exaggerate the
Ripening and Induction of Labour notes ‘‘reduced
dangers of the natural process and overlook the harm
failure to achieve vaginal delivery within 24 hours’’
done by injudicious intervention. Belief is not amen-
as an advantage of the drug in the abstract, but
able to change by science, logic, or even common
readers must delve into the review’s text to find
sense. ‘‘My mind is made up; don’t confuse me with
that misoprostol resulted in no difference in cesar-
the facts’’ will do quite as well to compromise
ean section rate overall when compared with
research, reviews, and commentaries as financial
prostaglandin E2 (33). This is a serious omission,
incentives to get the ‘‘right’’ result.
given the review’s ominous findings that misopros-
ACOG and its spokespeople sometimes also have
tol increases the incidence of uterine hyperstimula-
less innocent motives than self-deception. A promin-
tion compared with other induction agents, that it
ent obstetrician and the ACOG guidelines for VBAC
increases the likelihood of abnormal fetal heart rate
openly admit that avoiding malpractice litigation
and meconium staining compared with intracervical
motivates the discouragement of VBAC (22,37),
prostaglandin E2, and the authors’ acknowledg-
despite the ACOG ‘‘Code of Professional Ethics,’’
ment of case reports of uterine rupture with and
which enjoins obstetricians to resolve conflicts of
without uterine scars. The abstract gives the misim-
interest in favor of what is best for the patient (38).
pression that misoprostol is a superior induction
Given misoprostol’s potential for disasters and the
agent, when, in fact, it is not, but it is more
availability of an equally efficacious and less risky
drug, this motive also appears to be the only logical
These errors are not subtle. Experienced researchers
reason for pressuring the FDA to rescind the ban on
should know better, or failing that, peer review com-
Cytotec. The ability to claim that misoprostol induc-
mittees, who also should know better, should have
tion meets the community standard of care protects
caught the errors. That these ‘‘experts’’ did not raises
obstetricians in misoprostol-related lawsuits. Another
the possibility that the errors may have been intentional.
strong motivator is preserving the hegemony ofobstetric management and the power, prestige, andeconomic reward that go with it.
As scandals elsewhere have taught us, in the
absence of outside oversight or restraint, the danger
Why would supposed experts pass off badly done
always exists that members of any occupation will act
studies as sound research? The inbred biases of some
in their own self-interest at the expense of those they
profess to serve when the two conflict. Practitioners
Reuters. FDA OKs label change for labor-inducing drug.
and the public trust that the scientific method and
Reuters Health Information, Apr 18, 2002.
U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Cytotec. Access at:
peer review will protect against exactly this potential
http://www.fda.gov/medwatch/SAFETY/2002/safety02.htm#
and ensure that, insofar as it is possible, results reflect
the truth. When those involved co-opt the process
Goer H. The Thinking Woman’s Guide to a Better Birth. New
and present propaganda as research, they break that
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In the end, motivation doesn’t matter. The
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damage is done regardless. As it stands now,
reformers of obstetric management have effectively
Rageth JC, Juzi C, Grossenbacher H. Delivery after previ-
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libel or threatened with legal action (39). The
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REPORT ATTIVITA’ TURISMO BERGAMO Secondo Trimestre 2012 APRILE The Key To Bergamo Aprile – Maggio 2012 E’ uscita ed è in distribuzione la rivista trimestrale di Turismo Bergamo: The Key to Bergamo. La guida, nella sua nuova veste grafica, è distribuita in 50 mila copie in: camere e hall di Hotel, Bed & Breakfast, Residence, Ostelli e Case Vacanza di Bergamo
John F. Nash, Jr., submitted his Ph.D. dissertation entitled Non-CooperativeGames to Princeton University in 1950. Read it 58 years later, and you willfind the germs of various later developments in game theory. Some of theseare presented below, followed by a discussion concerning dynamic aspects ofequilibrium. What is a Nash equilibrium1? John Nash defines an equilibrium point as“an n-tuple s